Preseason Rankings
Conference USA
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
82 Western Kentucky 29.3%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 8 12 - 6 +6.8      +5.3 48 +1.4 124 68.8 177 0.0 1 0.0 1
95 North Texas 23.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 9 11 - 7 +5.6      +3.6 83 +2.0 113 59.2 345 0.0 1 0.0 1
109 Louisiana Tech 15.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 11 - 7 +4.1      +2.6 104 +1.6 119 65.6 261 0.0 1 0.0 1
110 Marshall 16.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 11 - 7 +4.1      +2.9 97 +1.2 133 83.9 3 0.0 1 0.0 1
118 Old Dominion 13.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 10 10 - 8 +3.4      -0.1 178 +3.5 81 65.3 268 0.0 1 0.0 1
131 UAB 8.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 10 10 - 8 +1.9      +0.8 144 +1.1 137 63.8 302 0.0 1 0.0 1
153 Texas San Antonio 5.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 10 9 - 7 +0.5      +3.4 88 -2.8 254 78.5 23 0.0 1 0.0 1
161 UTEP 5.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 11 9 - 9 -0.2      -1.7 224 +1.5 122 67.1 233 0.0 1 0.0 1
164 Charlotte 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 8 - 10 -0.4      -1.1 203 +0.7 145 63.6 303 0.0 1 0.0 1
171 Florida International 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 11 7 - 9 -0.7      +0.6 153 -1.2 212 77.7 29 0.0 1 0.0 1
191 Florida Atlantic 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 14 7 - 11 -2.0      -2.5 245 +0.5 156 69.4 158 0.0 1 0.0 1
193 Middle Tennessee 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 14 7 - 11 -2.1      -0.6 190 -1.5 219 71.7 98 0.0 1 0.0 1
229 Southern Miss 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 7 - 11 -4.3      -3.2 269 -1.1 204 66.3 250 0.0 1 0.0 1
265 Rice 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 16 5 - 13 -6.1      -1.8 226 -4.4 299 73.1 71 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Western Kentucky 3.6 30.2 17.7 12.2 9.9 7.4 5.9 4.4 3.7 3.0 2.0 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.2
North Texas 4.4 22.8 15.2 12.1 9.8 8.4 7.3 6.3 4.9 4.2 3.3 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.6
Louisiana Tech 5.0 15.0 14.1 12.4 10.4 9.5 8.5 7.1 6.2 5.2 4.3 3.1 2.1 1.3 0.6
Marshall 5.1 14.7 13.4 12.2 10.9 9.5 8.3 7.2 6.0 5.6 4.1 3.2 2.3 1.7 0.8
Old Dominion 5.4 13.3 12.1 11.3 10.7 9.2 8.6 7.7 6.9 5.8 4.9 3.8 2.8 2.0 1.1
UAB 5.9 9.4 10.7 10.4 10.1 9.7 9.4 8.3 7.5 6.6 5.7 4.7 3.8 2.2 1.4
Texas San Antonio 7.4 2.9 5.4 7.1 8.1 9.8 9.5 9.1 9.4 8.7 8.2 7.4 6.5 4.7 3.1
UTEP 6.9 6.1 7.7 8.4 8.6 8.5 8.8 8.4 8.0 8.0 7.0 6.8 5.9 4.5 3.3
Charlotte 7.9 4.0 5.4 5.7 6.9 7.2 7.8 8.3 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.2 8.4 7.5 4.5
Florida International 8.9 1.1 2.5 4.0 5.1 6.0 7.3 8.1 9.0 9.6 9.9 10.6 10.6 9.6 6.4
Florida Atlantic 8.6 2.4 3.9 4.8 5.8 5.9 7.2 7.7 8.3 9.1 9.1 10.0 9.5 9.4 7.0
Middle Tennessee 9.0 2.1 3.2 4.0 4.6 5.5 6.5 6.9 7.6 8.5 9.5 10.4 11.3 11.1 8.7
Southern Miss 9.6 1.4 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.5 5.3 6.5 7.4 8.9 9.3 10.9 11.7 12.3 12.4
Rice 11.4 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 2.0 2.4 2.9 4.5 5.5 7.4 9.9 14.8 20.0 27.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Western Kentucky 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.1 4.9 6.4 8.3 10.3 11.6 12.9 12.6 11.3 8.1 5.0 1.5
North Texas 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.5 9.8 11.0 11.9 11.8 10.3 8.3 5.7 3.3 1.0
Louisiana Tech 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.0 6.2 7.8 10.0 11.4 12.3 12.0 11.0 8.6 6.2 3.6 1.5 0.5
Marshall 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.6 4.4 6.1 8.3 9.8 11.2 12.3 11.9 10.3 8.6 6.1 3.7 1.6 0.5
Old Dominion 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.1 5.0 6.7 8.9 10.5 11.4 12.0 11.0 9.2 7.9 5.5 3.1 1.7 0.4
UAB 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.9 6.0 7.9 9.9 11.0 12.7 11.9 9.9 8.7 6.1 4.3 2.1 1.0 0.2
Texas San Antonio 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.9 4.7 7.0 9.2 10.9 12.2 12.1 12.0 10.1 7.4 5.1 2.8 1.3 0.4
UTEP 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.4 6.4 7.9 9.9 10.6 11.6 10.6 9.7 8.2 6.3 4.6 2.9 1.3 0.7 0.1
Charlotte 8 - 10 0.3 1.3 2.7 4.4 6.5 8.8 10.1 11.1 10.9 10.4 9.9 8.0 5.9 4.5 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1
Florida International 7 - 11 0.4 1.7 3.6 6.0 8.3 11.0 11.3 12.6 12.1 10.7 8.6 6.0 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1
Florida Atlantic 7 - 11 0.5 1.9 3.5 5.8 8.2 9.7 11.0 11.2 11.5 9.9 8.4 6.5 4.8 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 7 - 11 0.8 2.5 4.3 7.4 9.4 11.1 11.6 10.7 11.0 8.6 7.6 5.8 3.8 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 7 - 11 0.9 2.9 5.5 8.4 11.4 11.6 11.9 11.1 9.9 8.4 6.0 4.6 3.3 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rice 5 - 13 3.9 8.8 12.8 14.4 14.1 12.5 10.3 8.1 5.8 3.7 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Western Kentucky 30.2% 21.2 6.9 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Texas 22.8% 15.7 5.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Tech 15.0% 9.3 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Marshall 14.7% 9.2 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 13.3% 8.3 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
UAB 9.4% 5.4 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 2.9% 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
UTEP 6.1% 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 4.0% 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida International 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 2.4% 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Middle Tennessee 2.1% 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1
Rice 0.3% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Western Kentucky 29.3% 21.6% 7.7% 12   0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 2.1 3.0 4.7 6.9 4.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 70.7 9.8%
North Texas 23.5% 16.5% 7.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.4 4.1 5.8 3.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 76.5 8.3%
Louisiana Tech 15.6% 12.4% 3.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.9 4.2 3.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 84.4 3.6%
Marshall 16.6% 11.5% 5.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.8 4.4 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 83.4 5.8%
Old Dominion 13.5% 10.4% 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.8 3.5 3.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 86.5 3.5%
UAB 8.2% 7.0% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 2.1 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 91.8 1.3%
Texas San Antonio 5.1% 4.5% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 94.9 0.7%
UTEP 5.0% 4.2% 0.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 95.0 0.8%
Charlotte 4.2% 3.5% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 95.8 0.7%
Florida International 3.3% 2.9% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 96.7 0.4%
Florida Atlantic 2.2% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 97.8 0.3%
Middle Tennessee 2.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 97.7 0.3%
Southern Miss 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 99.0 0.0%
Rice 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Western Kentucky 29.3% 2.6% 28.0% 10.3% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
North Texas 23.5% 2.4% 22.2% 7.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 15.6% 1.5% 14.8% 4.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Marshall 16.6% 2.1% 15.5% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 13.5% 1.4% 12.8% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 8.2% 0.7% 7.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 5.1% 0.5% 4.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 5.0% 0.5% 4.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 4.2% 0.4% 4.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 3.3% 0.4% 3.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 2.2% 0.2% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 2.3% 0.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 72.1 25.4 2.3 0.1
1st Round 99.7% 1.2 0.3 76.9 21.4 1.3 0.0
2nd Round 34.2% 0.4 65.8 31.4 2.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 11.4% 0.1 88.6 11.1 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4 0.0
Final Four 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0 0.0
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1